Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 13 2020 | 5542 | 33668 | 183 | 35 | 1317 | 1804 |
| November 14 2020 | 5626 | 33990 | 189 | 40 | 1310 | 1781 |
| November 15 2020 | 5865 | 34361 | 192 | 40 | 1309 | 1905 |
| November 16 2020 | 6149 | 34583 | 193 | 42 | 1433 | 2054 |
| November 17 2020 | 6251 | 35217 | 197 | 45 | 1354 | 2026 |
| November 18 2020 | 6602 | 35585 | 201 | 46 | 1566 | 2286 |
| November 19 2020 | 6778 | 35890 | 203 | 48 | 1647 | 2222 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 8.0 | 4.1% | 67 | 0.58% | 89 | 0.77% |
| 10-19 | 29 | 26.1 | 13.7% | 225 | 1.65% | 320 | 2.35% |
| 20-29 | 44 | 45.4 | 25% | 412 | 1.97% | 547 | 2.61% |
| 30-39 | 38 | 30.6 | 16% | 264 | 1.94% | 367 | 2.7% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 23.3 | 12.6% | 208 | 1.99% | 280 | 2.68% |
| 50-59 | 18 | 21.4 | 11.8% | 195 | 1.55% | 256 | 2.04% |
| 60-69 | 21 | 18.3 | 9.7% | 159 | 1.38% | 202 | 1.75% |
| 70+ | 8 | 13.0 | 7.1% | 117 | 1.12% | 161 | 1.54% |
| All ages | 176 | 186.1 | 100% | 1647 | 1.57% | 2222 | 2.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 13 2020 | 3358 | 20857 | 95 | 36 | 1230 | 1493 |
| November 14 2020 | 3438 | 21032 | 99 | 36 | 1178 | 1499 |
| November 15 2020 | 3511 | 21197 | 102 | 38 | 1077 | 1553 |
| November 16 2020 | 3580 | 21319 | 104 | 41 | 976 | 1547 |
| November 17 2020 | 3693 | 21645 | 107 | 41 | 980 | 1565 |
| November 18 2020 | 3797 | 21827 | 107 | 42 | 1044 | 1537 |
| November 19 2020 | 3894 | 21946 | 109 | 43 | 1094 | 1460 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.6 | 2.7% | 29 | 0.37% | 40 | 0.52% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 7.4 | 7.9% | 86 | 1.02% | 116 | 1.38% |
| 20-29 | 19 | 15.9 | 15.9% | 174 | 2.45% | 229 | 3.22% |
| 30-39 | 23 | 16.1 | 18.5% | 202 | 2.4% | 271 | 3.22% |
| 40-49 | 14 | 15.7 | 17.4% | 190 | 2.45% | 257 | 3.31% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 15.7 | 15.6% | 171 | 1.76% | 234 | 2.41% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 13.6 | 13.7% | 150 | 1.78% | 195 | 2.32% |
| 70+ | 9 | 8.9 | 8.4% | 92 | 1.29% | 118 | 1.66% |
| All ages | 97 | 95.9 | 100% | 1094 | 1.69% | 1460 | 2.26% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 13 2020 | 2184 | 13590 | 88 | 29 | 760 | 961 |
| November 14 2020 | 2397 | 13804 | 92 | 30 | 903 | 1116 |
| November 15 2020 | 2641 | 13993 | 97 | 30 | 1055 | 1321 |
| November 16 2020 | 2721 | 14032 | 98 | 30 | 1036 | 1333 |
| November 17 2020 | 2754 | 14235 | 104 | 34 | 957 | 1330 |
| November 18 2020 | 2882 | 14400 | 109 | 35 | 1021 | 1388 |
| November 19 2020 | 3023 | 14489 | 113 | 35 | 1104 | 1437 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 4.3 | 3.6% | 40 | 0.74% | 54 | 0.99% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 10.3 | 8.5% | 94 | 1.73% | 132 | 2.43% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 19.6 | 14.9% | 164 | 3.62% | 220 | 4.86% |
| 30-39 | 27 | 22.0 | 16.2% | 179 | 3.3% | 223 | 4.11% |
| 40-49 | 26 | 19.3 | 14.2% | 157 | 3.15% | 210 | 4.22% |
| 50-59 | 37 | 22.1 | 16.7% | 184 | 2.71% | 237 | 3.49% |
| 60-69 | 11 | 17.6 | 14.1% | 156 | 2.46% | 198 | 3.13% |
| 70+ | 9 | 12.7 | 11.8% | 130 | 2.05% | 163 | 2.57% |
| All ages | 141 | 127.9 | 100% | 1104 | 2.44% | 1437 | 3.18% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 13 2020 | 6184 | 36601 | 113 | 28 | 1444 | 1711 |
| November 14 2020 | 6226 | 36977 | 113 | 30 | 1316 | 1676 |
| November 15 2020 | 6285 | 37236 | 114 | 30 | 1250 | 1677 |
| November 16 2020 | 6449 | 37430 | 115 | 30 | 1275 | 1814 |
| November 17 2020 | 6641 | 37750 | 121 | 31 | 1250 | 1901 |
| November 18 2020 | 6845 | 38261 | 128 | 31 | 1376 | 1935 |
| November 19 2020 | 6919 | 38594 | 132 | 32 | 1384 | 1884 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.4 | 3% | 41 | 0.35% | 53 | 0.45% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 12.3 | 10.1% | 140 | 0.85% | 201 | 1.21% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 27.6 | 20.9% | 289 | 1.36% | 398 | 1.87% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 23.1 | 17.1% | 236 | 1.74% | 305 | 2.24% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 14.4 | 12.4% | 171 | 1.26% | 228 | 1.68% |
| 50-59 | 22 | 23.0 | 16.5% | 229 | 1.61% | 309 | 2.18% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 13.3 | 10.8% | 149 | 1.05% | 220 | 1.55% |
| 70+ | 8 | 11.6 | 9.3% | 129 | 0.99% | 170 | 1.31% |
| All ages | 74 | 128.7 | 100% | 1384 | 1.17% | 1884 | 1.59% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 13 2020 | 21055 | 255636 | 660 | 61 | 4287 | 5534 |
| November 14 2020 | 21348 | 257673 | 664 | 61 | 4385 | 5509 |
| November 15 2020 | 21720 | 259011 | 667 | 61 | 4425 | 5709 |
| November 16 2020 | 22223 | 259512 | 673 | 61 | 4416 | 6016 |
| November 17 2020 | 22930 | 261256 | 695 | 64 | 4656 | 6162 |
| November 18 2020 | 23474 | 262791 | 706 | 68 | 4951 | 6511 |
| November 19 2020 | 23869 | 263742 | 714 | 69 | 5072 | 6574 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 21.0 | 4.6% | 234 | 0.39% | 324 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 89 | 87.0 | 17.3% | 879 | 1.24% | 1147 | 1.61% |
| 20-29 | 86 | 111.4 | 23.8% | 1206 | 1.16% | 1596 | 1.54% |
| 30-39 | 65 | 73.9 | 15.9% | 808 | 1.06% | 1039 | 1.36% |
| 40-49 | 48 | 60.0 | 13.2% | 670 | 1.02% | 874 | 1.33% |
| 50-59 | 34 | 52.6 | 11.3% | 571 | 0.87% | 717 | 1.09% |
| 60-69 | 25 | 34.9 | 7.2% | 363 | 0.66% | 445 | 0.81% |
| 70+ | 35 | 27.7 | 6.7% | 341 | 0.69% | 432 | 0.88% |
| All ages | 395 | 468.4 | 100% | 5072 | 0.93% | 6574 | 1.2% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 13 2020 | 301165 | 1975512 | 14045 | 2573 | 63098 | 81073 |
| November 14 2020 | 306311 | 1989320 | 14226 | 2625 | 62309 | 80941 |
| November 15 2020 | 312369 | 2001239 | 14381 | 2637 | 62445 | 83506 |
| November 16 2020 | 316758 | 2009148 | 14499 | 2649 | 60693 | 84462 |
| November 17 2020 | 323848 | 2024801 | 14817 | 2741 | 60718 | 85781 |
| November 18 2020 | 331837 | 2036941 | 15100 | 2793 | 64427 | 87835 |
| November 19 2020 | 338472 | 2049526 | 15336 | 2876 | 66702 | 88548 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 248 | 255.1 | 3.9% | 2624 | 0.41% | 3525 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 708 | 723.6 | 11.2% | 7473 | 0.99% | 10106 | 1.34% |
| 20-29 | 1076 | 1094.6 | 17.2% | 11485 | 1.52% | 15545 | 2.05% |
| 30-39 | 1122 | 1023.3 | 15.7% | 10473 | 1.38% | 13887 | 1.83% |
| 40-49 | 1075 | 955.0 | 14.7% | 9811 | 1.4% | 12952 | 1.85% |
| 50-59 | 1049 | 1032.7 | 15.8% | 10554 | 1.29% | 13828 | 1.7% |
| 60-69 | 743 | 728.4 | 11.4% | 7589 | 1% | 9982 | 1.32% |
| 70+ | 615 | 627.9 | 10% | 6693 | 1.05% | 8723 | 1.36% |
| All ages | 6635 | 6440.6 | 100% | 66702 | 1.15% | 88548 | 1.52% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 212.3 | 235.2 | 261.4 | 186.1 | 153.7 | 35.2% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 225.8 | 95.9 | 113.6 | 36% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 317.6 | 127.9 | 77.3 | 48.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 159.4 | 121.4 | 187 | 128.7 | 123 | 28.7% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120.2 | 161.4 | 153.7 | 468.4 | 358.9 | 26.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152.1 | 133.5 | 205.4 | 6440.6 | 5506.7 | 34.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 6.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.47 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-10 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2759"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges